In recent weeks, the situation around the city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region of Ukraine has developed in a worryingly fast manner. Avdiivka lies five miles to the north-west of the capital of the Donetsk region, Donetsk city. Since the Russian backed forces of the DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) and the LPR (Luhansk People’s Republic) began their separatist movements after the Maidan Revolution in 2014, the city of Avdiivka has been a contested area. For eight years, pro-Russian forces attempted to capture the city, but it held firm. Operations against the city ramped up in 2022 after the full-scale Russian invasion. This is due to its strategic significance. Due to its proximity to Donetsk city, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been able to target Russian logistical hubs and supply lines that are based around Donetsk city. For the Russian Armed Forces, controlling Avdiivka would mean controlling the whole of the Donetsk oblast. This would be a major victory for the Russians, having seized control of the Luhansk Oblast in the summer of 2022 after the fall of Severodonetsk. This would bring both two major areas of Russian interest fully under Russian control, and provide a basis for Russian claims to be made for not only more land in the East of Ukraine, but also in the South too. Given that one of the objectives of the Russian President Vladimir Putin was to secure the DPR and LPR, the capture of Avdiivka would secure one of the Kremlin's war objectives, and perhaps sew more seeds of doubt in western governments in regard to Ukraine’s ability to maintain its ongoing war against Russia.
In the Spring of 2023, the city of Bakmuht in the East of Ukraine was captured by the Russians after almost a year of heavy fighting in and around the city. It was the most costly battle for the Russian armed forces to date, with casualty estimates reaching as high as 50,000 men lost in the fighting. This was largely down to the Russian strategy for taking the city. Essentially, the Russian commanders in charge of the capture of the city opted for a brutal method of exchanging lives for land. Russian conscripts were forced into head-on attacks on Ukrainian positions armed with little more than rifles. The true motive behind this strategy was sinister, in exchange for the lives of poorly armed, and poorly trained conscripts from either the Russian Armed Forces or the Wagner PMC, a private military company, notorious for its actions in the Bakmuht area, the Russian forces in the area would then detect Ukrainian firing positions and begin to shell them heavily. This cost the Russian forces thousands of lives per kilometer gained around Bakmuht. According to preliminary reports, a similar strategy of human-wave tactics have been reported across the Avdiivka axis. It is clear that the heavy Soviet influence on the Russian Armed Forces is still ever present today. Some are now reciting the famous quote from Joseph Stalin, “Quantity is a quality all of its own''. This is proving to be relevant at Avdiivka, just as it was in Bakmuht. It begs the question, is the strategic value of Avdiivka worth the unavoidable cost of lives that defending the city will bear on the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
It is understood by the Ukrainian general staff that the situation in Avdiivka is not sustainable and will eventually collapse. This can be evidenced by the fact that as of present, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing defensive positions seven miles to the west of the city. As was the case in Bakmuht, the disparity of numbers is the driving factor behind the gradual Russian advancements on the flanks of the city. Given the vast difference in regard to the capabilities of both the Russian and Ukrainian artillery (generally a sound method of ascertaining the direction a battle is heading towards), the numerical superiority the Russians often enjoy goes in tandem with their aforementioned human wave tactics that are so prevalent around Avdiivka. Until the beginning of winter, the Ukrainian forces in the city were equalling the Russian forces in their artillery duels around the city, However, in light of the recent issues in both Brussels and Washington in regard to the supply of artillery shells for Ukraine, there has been a signficant down-scaling of the number of shells that the Ukrainian side can fire on to their Russian counterparts. As a result of this, the ability of the Ukrainains to gain any sort of initiative on the battlefield is significantly hindered.
The war of numbers does not just end with artillery however, a favourite tactic of the Russian Armed Forces in Avdiivka, is to utilise their airpower over the city. As was the case in Mariupol Russian bombs rain down on the city, the limited capabilities of Ukrainian air defense have not been able to prevent the Russian air force from generally being unopposed in operating around the city. Russian glide bombs have been striking Ukrainian positions, inflicting heavy damage on already weakened Ukrainian positions.
Observers have declared that Avdiivka is a fortress city, as such the necessity to defend the city is accentuated as a result of the labels placed upon it. It could be argued that as a result of the heavy fighting throughout Bakmuht that city was also labeld as a fortress as a tool of propaganda. Arguably, this insistence to hold on to an untenable situation in Bakmuht led to the unnecessary losses of Ukrainian lives in a fruitless effort to hold onto the city for political reasons.
At the time of writing, the Russian Armed forces have all but encircled the remaining Ukrainian troops in the city, reports coming from the Ukrainian side all bear the same message - that the overwhelming advantage the Russians have in artillery has made any efforts to hold on to the city untenable. The Ukrainian high command has decided to slowly withdraw from the city, the defeat in Bakmuht the previous spring no doubt weighed heavily on the minds of the Ukrainian commanders in charge of making the final decision to pull out of the city.
The results of the infighting in western nations in regard to continuing its support for Ukraine has once again been taken advantage of by the Russian armed forces, the old Russian adage of quantity being a quality all of its own has once again reigned true in Avdiivka. Although extremely costly so far for the Russian military, their strategy has shown results, the likely capitualtion of the garrison in Avdiivka sets a worrying precedent for the coming months in which Ukraine will be short of almost every necessary resource to continue its fight, while Russia seemingly has grown into the conflict and will continue to press its numerical superiority all across the frontline in Ukraine.
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